Okay, thoughts gathered.
tl;dr — People and time.
Group consensus is the most common for me. When I was in regular groups that gathered around a specific RPG, any deviation from said RPG (or even basic conceits of said RPG) was generally a no-go. And even my current, hardly-meets-anymore group that is generally game for anything doesn’t seem to land on the same preferences all that often. E.g., “will play anything except this category which is totally off the table”.
Beyond that — though overlapping — is the level of effort. I tend to be a big fan of games that require pretty heavy player buy-in (e.g., Burning Wheel), and that’s a big hurdle. That, or I want to play some baggage-heavy trad game, but with the Quixotic goal of jettisoning the baggage — and apparently ain’t nobody got time for that.
Or, in reference to my post for today’s topic, it’s a game that I won’t even attempt because my own up-front investment seems so high — e.g., lots of content to digest, or I want some kickass minis to use with it.